Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
